NOAA Raises Hurricane Season Prediction

This year’s Atlantic hurricane season got off to a busy start, with seven named storms to date, and may have a busy second half, according to the updated hurricane season outlook recently issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. The updated outlook still indicates a 50 percent chance of a near-normal season, but increases the chance of an above-normal season to 35 percent and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent from the initial outlook issued in May.

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the season (1 June through 30 November), NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook projects a total (which includes the activity of the earlier tropical storms [Alberto, Beryl, Debbie, and Florence] and hurricanes [Chris and Ernesto]) of:

• 12 to 17 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
• 5 to 8 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
• 2 to 3 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

The numbers are higher from the initial outlook in May, which called for 9-15 named storms, 4-8 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes. Based on a 30-year average, a normal Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

“We are increasing the likelihood of an above-normal season because storm-conducive wind patterns and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures are now in place in the Atlantic,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center, in a prepared statement. “These conditions are linked to the ongoing high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995. Also, strong early-season activity is generally indicative of a more active season.”

However, NOAA seasonal climate forecasters also announced today that El Niño will likely develop in August or September.

“El Niño is a competing factor, because it strengthens the vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, which suppresses storm development. However, we don’t expect El Niño’s influence until later in the season,” Bell said.

Background information:

NOAA: National Hurricane Center

FEMA: Ready.gov: Hurricanes